Weekly Macro Data Coverage January 21, 2019


Key Highlights:

  • Liquidity condition remains stable at comfortable zone as Repo-WACR differential stands at 15 bps.
  • There is a net absorption of Rs. 20.5 lakh crores.
  • RBI had also infused 100 billion through OMO operation to maintain the sufficient liquidity in the system
  • Credit-Deposit ratio has also reverse to 77.6 after reaching a peak of 78.6 a fort night earlier.
  • The spread between 10-year Indian and US sovereign bond yields remains at a low level of 458 bps.
  • The global currency market remains less volatile under the uncertainty of Brexit deal.

Liquidity

Liquidity condition remains stable at comfortable zone as Repo-WACR differential stands at 15 bps. There is a net absorption of Rs. 20.5 lakh crores. However, RBI had also infused 100 billion through OMO operation to maintain the sufficient liquidity in the system. Growth in deposit has increased by 70 bps to 9.92% in first week of January. Credit offtake, on the other hand, has softened by almost 60 bps to 14.54% during the said period. As a result, Credit-Deposit ratio has also reverse to 77.6 after reaching a peak of 78.6 a fort night earlier.

Capital Market:

The 10-year US G-Sec yield remains stable at 2.69. 10-year Indian G-Sec yield, on the other hand, has dropped by 18 bps to 7.27%. As a result, the spread between the two bond yields remains at a low level of 458 bps. A positive development in US-China trade negotiation is primarily encouraging the investors to stepping out for investing in Emerging Markets.

Currency Trend:

The global currency market remains less volatile under the uncertainty of Brexit deal. Moreover, less volatility in currency market is also attributed to stability in commodity price and financial market. In third week of January, Indian rupee appreciated by nearly eight bps.

Interest rates and ratio

Interest Rate

Jan.12,

2018

Dec.14, 2018

Dec.21, 2018

Dec.28, 2018

Jan.04, 2019

Jan.11, 2019

Policy Repo Rate

6.00

6.5

6.5

6.50

6.50

6.50

Call Money Rate (WA)

5.88

6.44

6.49

6.57

6.35

6.35

364-Day Treasury Bill Yield

6.53

7.04

6.97

6.42

6.91

6.88

2-Yr Indian G-Sec

6.86

7.05

7.04

7.08

6.99

7.00

10-Yr Indian G-Sec

7.26

7.41

7.26

7.41

7.45

7.27

10-Yr US G-Sec

2.46

2.78

2.71

2.64

2.69

2.69

Spread in bps (10Yr Indian-10Yr US)

480

463

455

477

476

458

AAA Indian Corporate

7.93

8.63

8.65

8.48

8.57

8.55

AA Indian Corporate

8.51

-

-

9.35

8.93

8.48

Spread AAA to10 YR Indian bond

67

85

139

107

112

128

Credit/Deposit Ratio

74.24

-

78.59

-

77.60

-

USD LIBOR

1.69

2.82

2.82

2.75

2.80

2.78

Source: RBI, Investing.com

Deposit (In Rs. Lakh cr)

Bank Credit (In Rs. Lakh cr)

As on Jan 04, 2019

120.34

93.38

As on Jan 21, 2018

118.16

92.88

As on Jan 05, 2018

109.49

81.53

YTD (% change)

1.84%

0.55%

YoY (% change)

9.91%

14.54%

Source: RBI

Commercial Paper (Fortnight):

Outstanding (In Rs. Lakh cr)

Amount issued (In Rs. Lakh cr)

31-Dec-18

4.99

0.96

30-Nov-18

5.61

1.30

31-Dec-17

4.09

0.92

% Change (MoM)

-11.04%

-26.36%

% Change (YoY)

21.92%

4.56%

Source: RBI

Indices

11-Jan-18

28-Dec-18

04-Jan-2019

11-Jan-19

18-Jan-19

NSE Index

11,027.70

10,859.90

10,727.35

10,794.95

10,906.95

NSE Index Return

4.72

0.74

0.52

-0.25

0.02

BSE Index

35,965.02

36,076.7

35,695.10

36,009.84

36,386.61

BSE Index Return

5.6

0.94

0.51

-0.27

0.03



Liquidity Operation by RBI:

Source: RBI
Note: Net injection (+) and Net absorption (-)

Corporate Bond Position (in Rs. lakh cr):

Source: RBI, Acuité Research

Net Debt Issuance by Centre and State Government:

Source: Acuité Research, RBI

 

Commodity Price Movement (3 Month Moving Average):

Commodity Price Index (3 Month Moving Average):

USD-INR Movement

Source: RBI, Acuité Research

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