Executive Summary
Banks are systemically essential entities having a unique risk profile. Acuité follows an exhaustive CRAMELO framework to assess the credit facility of banks. The broad parameters of this framework are:
This process of assigning credit ratings to banks based on the CRAMELO framework involves assessment of banking operations and taking into consideration the financial profile of the bank along with other qualitative factors. This is followed by a structural analysis which typically includes an analysis of the asset-liability management, sensitivity of the bank to the external environment and the overall approach of the banks towards mitigating risks. Based on the CRAMELO framework, the risk of a bank comprises the following:
Capital Adequacy
All banks, under the Basel II and Basel III norms, are required to maintain a minimum level of regulatory capital (comprised of Tier I and Tier II capital) as a proportion of the Risk Weighted Assets. Higher levels of capitalisation - especially Tier I enable a bank to better absorb losses and provide stability in banking operations. Thus, apart from the Capital Adequacy Ratio, Acuité evaluates the Tier 1 capital to Risk Weighted Assets (RWA) Ratio and the quantum of Capital Conservation Buffer Maintained by the bank. Acuité also evaluates the indebtedness of a bank vis-à-vis its own funds, with higher indebtedness meaning that the incremental growth in loan book would have to be supported by increasing reliance on equity as a means of finance. While assessing a bank's capital levels and adequacy of the same, Acuité also evaluates the expected growth trajectory, outlook on asset quality, and ability of the bank to raise additional capital (Tier I and Tier II) in the short/medium term.
Risk Weighted Assets
While a bank's asset quality indicators measure its existing delinquency profile, the Risk Weighted Assets measure the propensity of such delinquency occurring in the first place. Acuité evaluates the Risk Weighted Assets to Total Exposure (all fund and non-fund-based exposures) ratio. This indicates the average risk weight associated with the bank's assets and off-balance sheet exposures enabling to ascertain the quality of assets which are yet to default.
Asset Quality
A study of the delinquency levels in the bank's asset portfolio, composition of assets into standard, sub-standard are some of the parameters that help evaluate a bank's ability to manage credit risk. It is also important to study the relationship between growth in assets and NPAs to ascertain whether the reduction in the GNPA ratio is due to an actual reduction in GNPA, or higher growth in assets. Acuité also evaluates the levels of geographical and sectoral diversification in the loan books to ascertain the degree of risk a bank would be susceptible to in case of adverse economic or regulatory changes in a sector or region. further evaluates the segment wise NPA and advances levels to understand the composition and performance (revenue/profit) of the loan segments based on size, sector, geography especially for public sector banks that are required to lend to priority sectors areas. To understand the quality of lending to the corporate sector, Acuité takes into account the credit quality of the top loan exposures, along with concentration in the loan portfolio. A bank's ability to attract and retain high credit quality corporate borrowers is a key to ensure stable and healthy asset quality going forward. Acuité also evaluates a bank's provisioning and write-off policies, risk management practices.
Further, to develop a holistic view of the asset quality of the bank, Acuité believes that the rate of migration in the asset quality is an indispensable parameter to be evaluated. To this end, Acuité evaluates the Slippage Ratio of the bank's assets defined as a ratio of Fresh Accretions to the Gross NPA divided by the total standard assets at the beginning of the year.
Acuité evaluates the quantum of priority sector exposure by factoring in the risk diversification strategies adopted to mitigate high credit risk.
Management
Management Risk is evaluated at two levels. Firstly, it is a function of the competence and integrity of the top management. Secondly, it is a function of the checks and balances put in place to account for fraud prevention, supervision and oversight within the bank. Acuité appraises the management of the bank on the following parameters:
Competency of the management is assessed based on the management's credentials, organisation structure, performance track record, strategies employed in response to environment changes and finally impact of the strategy implemented on the performance of the company.
Integrity of the management is assessed based on the track record of the management in adhering to statutory requirements, level of disclosures, transparency in reporting and analysis, litigation and related matters. Management, for this purpose includes senior management of the company, directors and promoters.
Risk appetite of the management is an important parameter in the evaluation of management risk. It is ascertained based on the tendency of the management to enter riskier/newer business segments, exposure to risky segments in the past and management philosophy for mergers, acquisitions and aggressive growth plans.
Acuité also believes that quality corporate governance is the key towards effective management of a financial institution. It facilitates compliance and enables the bank to better identify frauds, misappropriations and other personnel related operational issues.
Acuité lays much emphasis on accounting quality. The auditor's report, changes in auditors, accounting policies, periods as also comments of auditors are considered while arriving at the rating.
Acuité believes that adherence to the laid down procedures and carrying out the transactions in line with the procedures and systems is an important aspect governing the operations of a bank. Accordingly, the control and monitoring mechanisms of the bank are also factored in by while arriving at/ assigning the rating.
Despite liberalisation, the banking sector continues to be a highly regulated industry. Thus, the level of compliance with RBI guidelines, maintaining daily and fortnightly balances in the form of Cash Reserve Ratio, Statutory Liquidity Ratio and meeting other regulatory requirements are parameters that are evaluated by Acuité.
Earnings
Earnings is a function of the operating efficiency. Evaluation of the quality of earnings is not only treated as a return variable, but also evaluated as a cost variable. Acuité adopts a three-pronged approach to understanding the Earnings Quality of a bank:
These ratios measure the efficiency and loan pricing ability of the bank and compute the pace and yield that help generate returns. Acuité analyses several ratios including Net Interest Income (NII), Net Interest Margins (NIM), Interest Spreads, Return of Assets etc. to ascertain profitability and return levels.
This ratio measures the operating efficiency of the bank by analysing the trend in operating expenses with a rise or fall in AUM. In well managed banks with increase in scale of operations, the ratio should ideally decline with realisation of economies of scale.
This ratio is aimed at measuring the fee-based income as a proportion of the total income generated by a bank. Typically, fee-based income is less risky than interest income for a bank as the former is generated without the fund outflow for the purpose. Nevertheless, it is important to consider the amount of development as a proportion to average non-fund based commitments. Acuité also evaluates the investment income to total income ratio. This ratio is aimed at understanding the proportion of earnings from investments after accounting for mark to market adjustments. A higher ratio, to a limited extent, may indicate the risk appetite and business development efforts of the bank.
Liquidity
Given the high proportion of current and savings account in its financing mix, liquidity risk is one of the major impediments to the timely servicing of debt. There are two ways which analyse Liquidity Risk:
It is the ratio between total assets and liabilities maturing in a given time frame. The liquidity index is computed for various maturity buckets for the banks' liabilities and assets. However, a very high Liquidity index in the short term creates a long-term liquidity risk which further exposes the bank to re-pricing risk.
One of the key determinants of the banks' liquidity is the current level of Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) and Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR). Higher levels of these ratios result in lower liquidity risk. However, very high levels may adversely impact the earning quality. A critical evaluation of these liquidity ratios also enables to ascertain the risk appetite and thus the ability to undertake large exposures.
Operating Environment
Acuité also evaluates the overall operating efficiency of the bank and its ability to gain from economies of scale by evaluating the operating processes. Acuité evaluates the bank's performance on four fronts:
Acuité believes that sustaining a healthy earning profile along with a robust asset book depends on the bank's ability to diversify sources of cash flow. One of the key indicators is the geographical spread of operations. Acuité also evaluates the benefits derived from economies of scale by ascertaining the decline in operating expenses as a proportion of the spread.
Active product development and wide product spread are vital to ensuring a healthy earning profile and maintaining a competitive edge. In a changing business environment, a bank's ability to differentiate its products is the key to maintaining healthy returns on working funds. To this end, Acuité evaluates the exposure concentration of products and the bank's product innovation skills. Thus, history of active product innovation and market development activities undertaken add significant buoyancy to the operating risk profile by enhancing stability in the growth of future cash flows.
The technological prowess of a bank lies in embracing the latest in technological developments with an aim to limit costs, increase market penetration and enhance customer satisfaction. Using the latest technologies coupled with an efficient Core Banking System and advanced services like RTGS and Mobile Banking enable banks to limit turnaround time, improve margins on transaction fees and exponentially enhance profitability per employee. Further, these guarantee a higher level of customer satisfaction and improve customer retention rate too.
The quality of a bank's service offering is determined by its human capital. With increasing competition in the sector, emphasis is to be laid on customer experience and having efficient processes in work-flow management. Acuité believes that the bank's recruitment policy and its human resource development practices along with the overall management of organisational culture are important aspects in maintaining a healthy operating risk profile.
Market Risk Profile
The market risk profile of a bank is evaluated at two levels. Acuité first ascertains the bank's exposure to systematic risk factors and subsequently evaluates its ability to access the market, raise resources and manage market risks.
Systematic risk factors are macroeconomic factors that affect the entire economic system at large. It is thus impossible for a commercial entity to avoid exposure to systematic risk. At the same time, systematic risk factors may have a differential impact on different borrower classes. However, exposure to these factors can be managed in such a way that the overall impact on the bank portfolio is minimal. Thus, measures the bank's exposure and ability to manage systematic risk in its portfolio by assessing the following parameters:
Banks with large loan books with limited concentration are in a better position to guard against their exposure to systematic risk. Also, banks with large AUMs and diversified portfolio are less likely to be adversely affected by systematic risk factors as the overall probability of default in the portfolio will be much lower. However, Acuité also notes that banks with large AUMs having large exposure to a single party are more exposed to systematic risks as the ability to manage the impact of systematic risk factors significantly diminishes. Exposure to a wide range of financial products and catering to different types of financing requirement, limits revenue concentration from a borrower profile.
Banks, through bank guarantees, co-acceptances, underwriting and merchant banking operations, derivatives exposures and other financial products, often take off-balance sheet exposures on their books which are often triggered by macroeconomic and systematic factors. Thus, Acuité conducts a detailed evaluation of the gamut of contingent assets and liabilities held by the bank to better assess the probability of these contingencies arising in the short to medium term.
Systematic risk factors of a bank are its exposure to interest rate risk. This is evaluated by assessing the Rate Sensitive Gap (RSG) of the bank considering the current interest rate cycle. RSG is defined as the difference between the Rate Sensitive Assets (RSA) and Rate Sensitive Liabilities (RSL).
The banking sector is a systemically important economic intermediary. Therefore, while the RBI regulates the Indian Banking system, it also extends necessary support from time to time in the form of Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) and Marginal Standing Facility (MSF), operational support and regulatory assistance. The degree of support varies with the scale, nature, size and scope of operations. Further, the extent of government holding, and the regional and socio-economic importance are other factors that play a major role. Acuité believes that a healthy degree of support from the government on these grounds further strengthens the credit risk profile of the bank.
A bank's resource mobilization ability is a function of its cost of borrowing, ability to raise resources from the market and availability of unutilized lines of credit. Expanding the Current Account & Savings Accounts' portfolio (CASA) is one of the ways to raise low cost high volume financial resources for banks and reduce the weighted average cost of funds. Acuité ascertains the trend related to the growth in the bank's CASA over a period and analyses the CASA Ratio of the bank.
Acuité believes that growth in the scale of operations is driven primarily by two factors:
The geographical distribution and the network of branches, marketing strategies and growth in CASA are key factors that determine the bank's ability to expand business operations in the short to medium term. However, the maintenance of a vast distribution network is typically associated with higher selling and distribution and fixed costs for the bank. Acuité therefore evaluates the expansion strategy of the bank in the light of its cost-effectiveness and economies of scale.
In a highly competitive business environment, adherence to service standards and healthy customer relations is imperative to maintain competitive edge. Therefore, Acuité also evaluates the grievance redressal systems, adoption of technology enabled processes and other operating processes to assess the overall quality and service standards of the bank.