Pulse Production

As compared to the year 2013-14, when conditions were similar, pulse has claimed 34.7 lakh hectares of sown area that was traditionally under sugarcane, oilseeds, cotton and cereals

Acuité estimates that domestic production of pulses will exceed 20 million tones this financial year, highest production ever recorded since the year 1957. Our calculations are based on the current area sown per crop (year to date) and future outlook based on available land and substitutes. Area sown under pulses during the Kharif season has increased 29% to a record high of 146 lakh hectares in FY17. This increase in cultivated area will have a positive impact on production and therefore we estimate kharif pulse crop to cross 7.1 million tonnes by year end.

As compared to the year 2013-14, when conditions were similar, pulse has claimed 34.7 lakh hectares of sown area that was traditionally under sugarcane, oilseeds, cotton and cereals

With 67% of domestic pulse production connected to the Rabi season, an additional 13 million tonnes of pulse will enter the market by the end of the Q4 2016-17 and start of Q1 2017-18. Keeping the Rabi seasonal output as stable, we believe that the 2 million tons of incremental production during the current season will make most of the difference in this outlook.

Principal factors influencing the category  

Monsoon
Demand Supply Equilibrium
Consumer Sentiment/ Inflationary Situation
Economic Growth & Outlook
Government Policy &Support (MSPs)

Pegging domestic demand for pulses this year at 24.2 million tones, the shortfall will be a three year low at 3.8 million tones. The inter-governmental agreements with African countries to secure supply of pulse- will further augment 5 million tons of buffer stock to this aggregate. Inflation in Pulse prices has already come down to 0.23% in November from a high of 66% recorded in June-July this year.

Pulse Market in India

Year Demand* Domestic Supply* Shortfall* MSP (Rs.)
2012-13 20.9 18.3 2.6 4,150
2013-14 21.6 19.2 2.4 4,352
2014-15 22.3 17.1 5.2 4,415
2015-16 23.3 16.5 6.8 4,684
2016-17 24.0 20.8 3.2 5,078

Source: Acuité Research; Ministry of Agriculture
*Unit: Million Tonnes; Weighted MSP Prices do not include Gram & other Pulse variants as 2016-17 prices are not available 

The increase of Rs. 600 in average pulse MSP has played a major role in this increase in area sown (under pulse) and has eventually helped in higher production. Overall, this season saw an increase of 58.2 lakh hectares in total sown area; Pulse, as a standalone crop has been responsible for more than half of this increase.

Furthermore, as compared to the year 2013-14, when conditions were similar, pulse has claimed 34.7 lakh hectares of sown area that was traditionally under sugarcane, oilseeds, cotton and cereals. Taking cues from the current situation, Acuité believes that farmers have strategically planned their cultivations to maximize gains. Rise in Pulses MSPs and extraction of higher yields per hectare from sugarcane plantations using technology and fertilizers has vastly helped these agricultural gains.

(Updated as on March 15, 2017)